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Paris, February 6, 2025 – Last month was the hottest January on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), despite expectations that the transition to La Niña conditions would slow global warming.
January 2025 was 1.75°C hotter than pre-industrial levels, continuing the streak of record-breaking temperatures seen in 2023 and 2024. Climate scientists had anticipated a cooling effect as the warming El Niño event peaked in early 2024 and La Niña gradually took over. However, global temperatures have remained unexpectedly high, sparking debate about additional factors influencing the climate.
Unexpected Warming Raises Concerns
“This is what makes it a bit of a surprise… We were expecting at least a temporary cooling effect, but we’re not seeing it,” said Julien Nicolas, a climate scientist from Copernicus, in an interview with AFP.
While La Niña is expected to be weak, scientists noted that parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean are showing signs of slowing or stalling in the transition to this cooling phenomenon. Nicolas suggested that La Niña could disappear completely by March 2025.
The persistence of extreme temperatures is alarming because even small increases in global temperatures intensify heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, posing a major risk to ecosystems and human societies.
Oceans and Climate Warming
Oceans play a crucial role in regulating Earth’s climate by absorbing 90% of excess heat from greenhouse gas emissions. However, sea surface temperatures have remained exceptionally high in 2023 and 2024. According to Copernicus, January 2025 recorded the second-highest ocean temperatures on record, further complicating predictions.
Scientists are now investigating potential reasons behind this prolonged warming. One theory suggests that a global shift to cleaner shipping fuels in 2020 may have inadvertently accelerated warming by reducing sulphur emissions, which previously helped cool the planet by reflecting sunlight.
Another recent study explored whether a reduction in low-lying clouds allowed more heat to reach Earth’s surface. “It’s still a matter of debate,” Nicolas added.
Breaking the 1.5°C Threshold
Copernicus recently reported that global temperatures averaged across 2023 and 2024 exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time. While this does not constitute a permanent breach of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target, it signals that the threshold is being tested.
Arctic sea ice also hit a monthly record low in January, virtually tying with 2018, highlighting the rapid impact of warming on polar regions.
What’s Next?
Although 2025 is not expected to surpass 2023 and 2024 in terms of heat records, scientists predict it will still be among the top three warmest years in history.
With the climate crisis intensifying, experts warn that cutting fossil fuel emissions remains the only long-term solution to curbing global warming.
Copernicus will continue to monitor ocean temperatures throughout 2025, searching for clues about how the climate system will evolve in the coming months.
Scientists say the current period is likely the warmest the Earth has been for the last 125,000 years.
