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Ramdas Tambe
In a world where geopolitical tensions continue to shape international relations, the nuclear landscape remains heavily concentrated among a handful of nations. According to a comprehensive 2024 report by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), nine countries collectively possess approximately 12,121 nuclear warheads—with Russia and the United States alone accounting for nearly 90% of that total.
The report, authored by leading experts Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Robert S. Norris, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, provides a detailed snapshot of the current global nuclear arsenal. The figures reveal a persistent imbalance in nuclear capabilities, despite global efforts toward disarmament.
The World’s Nuclear-Armed Nations (Estimated Warheads, 2024):
Russia: 5,580
United States: 5,044
China: 500
France: 290
United Kingdom: 225
India: 172
Pakistan: 170
Israel: 90
North Korea: 50
Together, Russia and the U.S. possess more than 10,600 warheads, including deployed, reserve, and those awaiting dismantlement. Their arsenals are legacies of Cold War stockpiles, though modernization efforts continue to keep their nuclear forces active and strategically viable.
China’s Growing Arsenal
China’s estimated 500 warheads mark a significant increase over recent years, reflecting its growing ambitions as a global military power. Analysts suggest Beijing is rapidly expanding its land-based missile systems and submarine-based deterrent, with further growth expected.
South Asia’s Nuclear Rivalry
India and Pakistan continue their nuclear arms race with comparable stockpiles—172 and 170 warheads, respectively. Both nations have developed a range of delivery systems, from ballistic missiles to air-dropped nuclear bombs, keeping tensions high in the region.
Israel and North Korea: Ambiguity and Secrecy
Israel, which maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity, is estimated to possess 90 nuclear warheads. Though unacknowledged officially, its capabilities are widely accepted among defense analysts. North Korea, meanwhile, has an estimated 50 warheads, with ongoing missile tests showcasing its evolving delivery technology.
NATO’s Third Place Without the U.S.
Interestingly, even without counting the U.S. arsenal, NATO would still rank third globally in nuclear strength thanks to France and the UK. Their combined stockpile of 515 warheads reflects Europe’s continued reliance on nuclear deterrence amid renewed strategic threats, particularly from Russia.
Call for Disarmament Amid Modernization
Despite global non-proliferation efforts, most nuclear-armed countries are modernizing their arsenals rather than disarming. The modernization includes developing new delivery systems, enhancing command-and-control structures, and deploying more mobile and survivable systems.
“While overall numbers are lower than during the Cold War peak, qualitative improvements and strategic rivalries are driving a new era of nuclear competition,” the report warns.
Conclusion
The 2024 FAS report underscores the stark reality: the world remains deeply entrenched in a nuclear order shaped by legacy powers and emerging threats. As modernization continues and new players expand their capabilities, the global community faces renewed urgency to address the risks posed by nuclear weapons.
